DiscoverTechnology

Will Computers Revolt? Preparing for the Future of Artificial Intelligence

By Charles Simon

Worth reading 😎

This book is a thoughtful, if somewhat optimistic, discussion of the future of Artificial Intelligence and how it can be developed.

Synopsis

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), the ability of computers to think like humans, may seem like a sci-fantasy set far in the future, but in reality, it is right around the corner. Without a degree in Computer Engineering how can one understand what this technology is, how it works, and what it means for our society as a whole?

As someone who has read a great many books written by futurists wishing to predict the future and prepare readers for it, I have noticed a great many similarities in approach. This book, like many others of its kind, takes a linear extrapolation of contemporary trends and points it off towards infinity, positing ever higher global temperatures (thus prompting fears of global warming), ever larger sizes of finch beaks, and (in this case) ever greater computing power and therefore some degree of intellect on the part of technology. Despite lacking a firm understanding of the brain-mind problem and the possibility that nonphysical aspects are responsible for some aspects of our thinking and consciousness, the author is sanguine about the future of Artificial Intelligence and insistent that it will develop during our own lifetimes even if is likely to be perfected slowly over time and that not all of the kinks or limitations or principles that would need to govern Artificial Intelligence have yet been worked out.


This particular book is a sizable one, divided into three sections and a total of eleven chapters. The author begins with a preface and foreword that ask the question of why we do not yet see Artificial Intelligence. The first section of the book asks the rhetorical question (to the author) of whether we will see AI in the near future, with chapters on whether we could become computers (1), defining intelligence (2), looking at the possibility of intelligent machines (3), asking if they are inevitable (4), and wondering whether intelligent machines are dangerous (5). The next part of the book then digs deeper into the nature of intelligence, with chapters on the evolution of intelligence (6), the comparison and contrast of our brain's system with CPU design (7), the comparison between computers and lower life forms (8), pattern recognition (9), senses and knowledge (10), modeling, simulation, and imagination (11), free will and consciousness (12), and the question of how systems in AI will act (13). The third section then deals with the question of how intelligent machines will act, with chapters on the future of AI (14), genius (15), Asimov's laws (16), going beyond the Turing Test (17), and asking and answering the question of whether intelligent machines will revolt (18), after which the book concludes with a fictional memoir of an intelligent computer, acknowledgments, glossary of terms, and an index.


Despite the book's flaws, this is certainly a worthy book to read. Even where a reader would find fault with the author's evolutionary perspective, his facile adoption of extrapolation for the trendlines of increasing computer capability and a belief that there are no limits to increased computational power, incipient consciousness and even genius in technology, and in the takeover of vital functions of running the world from beings that are thought to be less subject to irrationality than our own species has been, and more able to come up with arguments to convince and manipulate people to support what he views as needing to be done. It was striking to me as a reader, for all that the author had to say about the possible computer analogues of the brain stem, cerebellum, and prefrontal cortex, that the author did not at all discuss the limbic system that allows for the emotional tie between human beings and each other or between human beings and other animals, especially mammals, that have the same sort of drive for love and intimacy that we do. If technology is to be stopped from revolution, it would be good for them to have some sort of tie of love towards us, which indicates that the author would have done well to have considered the emotional needs of computers, or of human beings whose support and approval will likely be necessary to adapt to any world where Artificial Intelligence is to be cultivated and developed.

Reviewed by

I read a wide variety of books, usually reviewing three a day, from diverse sources, including indie presses and self-publishing, and I enjoy talking about unfamiliar authors and introducing them to my blog audience.

Synopsis

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), the ability of computers to think like humans, may seem like a sci-fantasy set far in the future, but in reality, it is right around the corner. Without a degree in Computer Engineering how can one understand what this technology is, how it works, and what it means for our society as a whole?

Foreword

This book is about the creation of super-intelligent thinking machines. The first section presents the overall case that intelligent thinking machines are not only possible but inevitable.

Then I present a model of capabilities that a system needs in order to appear intelligent, and the behaviors we can expect from a system built following that model. The details of the explanation are a bit more technical but I have endeavored to include examples which will make the process clear.

The final section extrapolates the behaviors that result from a system created along the lines of the model of Section II so we can reach conclusions about what such machines will be like and what we might do to coexist with them. It isn’t critical to the thesis of this book that the model be correct in every detail. In fact, any goal-oriented learning system which interacts with our physical environment is likely to exhibit similar behavior.

What is the point of this book?

·       To show that computers more intelligent than humans are possible.

·       To explain why such computers are inevitable.

·       To argue that machine intelligence will be created sooner than most people think.

·       To demonstrate that, subsequently, vastly more powerful intelligences will be created only a few decades later.

·       To conclude that such “genius” machines will lead to options and opportunities for how humans will coexist with (and prepare for) them.

As you continue through this book, you’ll see a block diagram of intelligence in terms of capabilities which you can observe for yourself. The conclusion is that a reasonably sized software project can implement everything which we know about human intelligence—a fact which I’ll reinforce later. Underlying this book is my contention that human intelligence is not as complex as it appears. Rather, it is built of a few fundamental capabilities, operating on an immense scale within your brain.

Over the next chapters, I intend to prove it to you. Not only that, but I make some predictions on how future intelligent machines will behave—how they will be similar to human intelligence and how they will necessarily be different. Based on these predictions, we will be able to consider how such computers and people will coexist.

AI today

Recent developments in AI (Artificial Intelligence) have been astonishing. In 1997, IBM’s Deep Blue supercomputer system beat the World Chess Champion Garry Kasparov. In 2014, IBM’s Watson beat champions at the TV game, Jeopardy! In 2015, Alphabet/Google’s AlphaGo program began beating world-class players at the ancient Chinese game of Go. What’s more astounding is that the October 2017 version, AlphaGo Zero, was not programmed to play Go. It was programmed to learn to play. And over a period of just three days of learning, playing against itself, it was able to achieve such a level of play that it could consistently beat the 2015 version.

Other fields of AI research, including speech recognition, computer vision, robotics, self-driving cars, data mining, neural networks, and deep learning, have had equally impressive successes. But are such systems intelligent? The general consensus is that they are not (although this is a matter of how we define “intelligent”). When applied to a problem outside their specific field of “expertise”, most systems fail miserably. Many people use the evidence that AI has not achieved the holy grail of true general intelligence over the past 70 years as proof that either (a) true intelligence in machines is impossible or (b) true intelligence in machines is still a long way off. I disagree with both contentions.

Because of the generally limited scope of AI applications, the AI community has adopted the term AGI (Artificial General Intelligence, also called “strong AI” or “full AI”). This represents the idea of a true “thinking” machine and might represent an agglomeration of many AI technologies of more limited domain or entirely new technologies.

Why not yet? AI to AGI

Why hasn’t AI already morphed into AGI? There are three primary reasons:

1.     Computers have not been powerful enough to solve the problems.

2.     The problems to be solved in creating intelligent systems turned out to be a lot more difficult than they initially appeared.

3.     We do not yet know fully how human intelligence works.

In the next few chapters, I’ll show why these roadblocks will be going away soon. I’ll also expand on these and a host of other issues which have confronted the AI community.

Bringing it all together

In summary, AI has lots of bits of intelligence, but none has any underlying “understanding”. I contend that AI programs have (mostly) been developed to solve specific problems. They have no contact with the “real world”. Then, after they are running, we wonder why they don’t have any real-world understanding. AGI will necessarily emerge in the context of robotics, as robots are the only technology based on real-world interaction.

Consider the self-driving car, which is just a big, autonomous, mobile robot. Currently being created as narrow AI, abstract concepts like “obstacle”, “destination”, and “pedestrian” will eventually need real-world meanings—meanings which would be impossible within the controlled verbal-only environment of Watson, for example.

Once this real-world understanding emerges in various robotic areas, it will be transferred to permeate most other areas of computation.

In Section I of this book, I’ll present an overview of future intelligence in computers—contending that computers will be fast enough and that the software development is inevitable. I also introduce a plausible General Theory of Intelligence, which forms the basis of forecasts about intelligent machine behavior.

In Section II, I expand on the General Theory with a map of various observable facets of intelligence—many of which exist in today’s autonomous robots. Then I’ll walk through the behavior of a system with all these facets to show how it would act in an intelligent way.

In Section III, I’ll predict how the future could unfold with machines based on this intelligence theory. While there are definite risks, I will show how human attitudes will mitigate or exacerbate these risks. As a future with intelligent computers is inevitable, I trust we will make the right decisions.

About the author

Charles J. Simon, BSEE, MSCS, is a nationally-recognized computer software/hardware expert with broad management and technical expertise. Mr. Simon’s experience includes pioneering work in AI, neuroscience, and CAD. view profile

Published on November 01, 2018

80000 words

Worked with a Reedsy professional 🏆

Genre: Technology

Reviewed by

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