We sail within a vast sphere, ever drifting in uncertainty, driven

from end to end. When we think to attach ourselves to any point and

fasten to it, it wavers and leaves us.

Blaise Pascal

As a leader, what is it that you hope to accomplish? Do you find it’s

getting harder to achieve your dreams? I’m involved in a lot of conversations

related to such reflections. So, I want to start by considering the

change that has been happening; change that can shape your hopes, one

way or another. Regardless of whether the pandemic occurred or not, I

will contend across the next three chapters that a momentous storm of

social, environmental, and economic issues, existing in an age of uncertainty,

was happening anyway. Let’s get started.

Just mull over, or reflect on, that last point for a minute. Seismic and

turbulent change is already here. Time and again, I see leaders, organizations,

and communities that do not recognize that the storm is here and

that we cannot continue to live in the past, calling on old ways of thinking,

doing, and being. I see the difficulties, the stress, and the doubts faced.

From time to time, I am really privileged to be able to work where the

policies, strategies, and operations of government and big business intersect

with communities, their economies, and the natural environment.

This requires me to engage with anyone within a region (some the size of

European nations), irrespective of their racial, cultural, or socioeconomic

background. I get to listen to executives from the C-suite and the public

sector through to those on the margins who are often denied a voice talk

about their hopes and their fears for the future. These conversations are,

although they don’t realize it, about the storm.

When I break this down further, those conversations about the future

of society often cover issues concerning their lives, livelihoods, and the

planet. We can cover a vast range of topics including but not limited to:

climate change; conflicts around the lack of access to freshwater; urbanization;

economic restructuring; loss of jobs due to automation (and

urbanization); concerns for their children’s future; polluting the land or

water; crime; the plight of Indigenous people; the role of government and

business; services for people of all ages; or access to transport, health, and

education. And can include the prevailing interconnectedness between

all of these.

While I will refer to “lives, livelihoods, and the planet,” henceforth,

I’m referring to a long list of issues pertaining to how people can live

happy and stimulating lives, have access to diverse and resilient economies

which can provide a good livelihood, and live on a healthy planet

that has clean air, water, and soils with a flourishing diversity of plants

and animals.

Glorious Pasts

I hear so many stories that never leave me: stories like John’s. When I

spoke to John, he was in his 70s, living in a remote rural community

in Central Queensland, in the north of Australia. I had been engaged

by government to advise on developing a long-term strategic plan, 10

years in focus. Part of the project required me to engage with regional

communities in many ways including holding group meetings and one-on-

one discussions.

I can still picture John walking through the door of a cherished

community hall. He was wearing a faded blue work shirt, dirty faded

jeans, and an Akubra hat (what many would call a cowboy’s hat) that

looked enormous. His skin was damaged from working under the harsh

Australian sun all his life and he had a no-nonsense attitude. “I’m a straight

talker and I’ll tell you how it is,” he asserted as he shook my hand, making

my bones crunch. He was shorter than me but certainly stronger from

constant and arduous labor.

As John assumed that I was a government employee (I wasn’t), he

proceeded to berate me about the government’s unwillingness to help the

remaining beef cattle farmers, like himself, that made up his small community.

The region hadn’t had rain for five years. Have you ever been to

a community like this? The soil is bone dry; the dust can be so thick on

windy days that visibility is reduced to meters. There is a grim resilience

on people’s faces. What must this do to people’s mental health?

John was berating me because he believed that layers of government

were doing nothing to support the community with respect to the

provision of freshwater. He had seen no adaptation in their thinking or

actions. People like John had been almost begging for a pipeline to be

constructed between a dam approximately 30 km (close to 20 miles) away

and his community. The community felt helpless because of the lack of

rain and the lack of support or even acknowledgment of their plight from

government. And water is life, right?

He was so angry, so frustrated, that he needed to talk and talk. I

listened for two hours and allowed John to take the conversation wherever

he felt it needed to flow. After that, he looked relieved, but spent.

(I later found out that I was the first person “from government” to listen

to him and he observed that he had told me things that he hadn’t told

anyone else.)

He didn’t feel he needed to say anymore. Yet I had other ideas; I had

just one question for him, “Can you tell me what services have been put in

place to support people around here with respect to their mental health?”

It felt like it took an eternity for John to respond. He looked noticeably

deflated and the expression on his face changed. John wasn’t looking at

me anymore. He was seeing something else, something from the past.

As I write this, I am feeling emotional. For John then told me a story

of a work colleague, someone who used to work closely with him and

someone who I am sure John cared about. Yet, the people in these communities

are meant to be tough and not wanting to show emotions. Emotions

are considered to be a sign of weakness. And that’s the problem.

John’s workmate was subconsciously struggling with the fact that

far-reaching change was already here, and that change appeared to

be a tiring constant. He was struggling with a lengthy drought and the

droughts were occurring ever more frequently. As I see with many people

in rural communities, he was also struggling with how urbanization and

restructuring of the economy locally, nationally, and globally had affected

rural communities like his own. Agriculture continues to play a vital role

in developing nations where anywhere between 40 and 90 percent plus of

adults in many African nations, for example, and somewhere around 40

percent of adults in southern Asian nations are employed in agriculture.

However, it is a different story in developed nations, such as the United

States, United Kingdom, and Australia. As countries develop, employment

within agriculture drops. This has been the case since the 1950s as

the ever-increasing usage of automation on farms in developed nations

has reduced employment levels within agriculture to below 10 percent

(Roser 2013).

John’s mate was struggling. Life and work just felt so grim. Yet, their

rural culture required the two men to be “tough.” So, they were unable to

broach the subject. John thought that something might be on his mate’s

mind but couldn’t bring himself to ask if he was okay; the “elephant in the

room” was never acknowledged. One day, his mate took one of his guns,

headed for an isolated part of the farm, and having lost all hope, took his

own life. He left so many people shocked, saddened, and at a loss. He

could no longer locate the region’s glorious past that he yearned for.

That John had shared such a personal story with me still feels humbling

and a real privilege.

I am frequently told stories like this, and they never leave me. These

stories aren’t just confined to rural communities or even Australia, for

that matter.

John then proceeded to tell me how, because of his friend’s passing,

he has taken it upon himself to make a difference. Grappling with guilt

and bewildered by a lack of support from authority, he was using every

opportunity at community events to publicly raise awareness about looking

after mental health. John is courageous, encouraging people to talk

about their problems, and getting communities to realize that admitting

you aren’t okay does not make you weak. This meant confronting the

worldview, the dominant mindset, of the community.

In my many conversations with people from all walks of life about

their hopes and fears, conversations often include a yearning for that

glorious past—a desire to “return to normal,” looking for perspectives,

making decisions, or implementing actions that no longer make sense.

But the glorious past isn’t returning. It isn’t returning for those communities

or for the many leaders that I talk to from across public, private,

and not-for-profit organizations. Leaders whose thinking and style of

leadership is influenced by the weight of history and perhaps the ripples

of a glorious past.

Momentous and turbulent change is already here and has implications,

positive and negative, beyond anything leaders have dealt with

previously.

And it will continue.

The Age of Uncertainty

The understandable yearning for the past that John’s friend and many

others desire is exacerbated by the kind of change experienced, as well as

the scale of that change. The first time that somebody had formally recognized

the hugely significant change we are now experiencing was when

academics Warren Bennis and Burt Nanus (1985) referred to it in the

mid-1980s. They highlighted how the problems faced by organizations

had become increasingly complex and were typified by too many polarities,

contradictions, and paradoxes. While these issues were profoundly

affecting organizations, Bennis and Nanus noted that institutions were

“rigid, slothful, or mercurial” in response.

Organizations hadn’t adapted. And maybe they hadn’t accepted

change was occurring … for many, it can feel like change “creeps up on

you.” I’m going to illuminate that momentous and turbulent change

being observed and the large ripples it creates by introducing you to a

few acronyms and an associated term you may not have heard of, namely

VUCA; TIMN; and “wicked problems.” I suspect that John would have

rolled his eyes if I had mentioned these acronyms. You may be feeling that way too. Please humor me and immerse yourself in these acronyms

and what they represent because they have implications not only for the

Johns of the world and their communities but also for you and your organization too.

VUCA

Bennis and Nanus’ observations inspired the U.S. Army War College in

the early 1990s to develop a framework to describe a world characterized

as being volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) (Yarger

2006). The world wasn’t black and white anymore. More was happening.

It also became apparent that VUCA wasn’t just a concern for military

organizations. There were—and still are—significant implications for

society, public, private, and not-for-profit organizations.

When people consider volatility, they may think conflict. And

there can be a lot of that in an increasingly VUCA world, which I’ll delve

into in Chapter 3. In this context, however, while conflict is a notable

by-product, volatility is intended to convey the explosive speed of change

that we are experiencing. Futurist Ray Kurzweil, for example, believes

that technological advancement will grow exponentially (Kurzweil 2006).

We won’t experience one hundred years of technological progress in the

21st century; we will witness the equivalent of 20,000 years of progress,

when measured at today’s rate (the rate present when he wrote his book).

Suffice it to say, he believed that we will experience a rate of technological

advancement 1,000 times greater than was experienced in the 20th century.

This volatility will understandably leave many stressed or fearful and

many in awe of the ceaseless need to adapt or just exhausted, as was the

case during the pandemic.

Increased uncertainty implies that there will often be times where we

won’t be confident in our predictions of how a situation will unfold, even

with our intervention. I’ve listened to a diverse array of leaders who talk

about increased uncertainty. They feel like issues they have resolved in the

past may reappear but cannot be resolved as confidently as was once the

case. “It used to be so much easier, even five years ago. We knew how to

fix the issue.”

Part of the reason for uncertainly lies in the deep complexity associated

with so much that leaders and societies need to deal with. There’s a

level of intricacy and a sum of too many parts associated with resolving

key issues (Yarger 2006). There are many issues where leaders can still

resolve a problem, comfortably, based on experience, and there are times

when leaders can easily find a way forward to resolving a problem based

on their expertise. This is second nature to so many successful leaders.

However, leaders are now also required to “dig beneath the surface,” to

unearth an array of root causes of an opportunity or challenge—all of

which need to be tackled. This complexity, often reflective of interconnected

issues, reinforces the uncertainty people feel.

Compounding the stress and uncertainty being felt, the speed of

change, as well as the belief that things don’t seem so simple now, is

the ambiguity associated with understanding context. When looking at

opportunities and challenges, different people nowadays interpret data in

different ways and assign meaning where others see none (Yarger 2006).

In Chapter 3, I will delve into the conflicts influenced by the polarized

views and interpretations that are present. For leaders, it has become

difficult to find a way forward when they don’t have confidence in identifying

what the problem is, why it is a problem—or whether it actually

is the true problem. Resolving these problems isn’t as likely as it once was.

Can you relate to that?

So that’s VUCA. It plays a key part in setting the context for our

conversation and indeed the context within which leaders make sense of

the cues they are receiving, make decisions, and engage with stakeholders

about those decisions. Quite rightly, people can suggest that the world

has always been VUCA. I’m sure that there have always been situations

that were volatile or uncertain or complex or ambiguous or a combination

of these. The framework, however, suggests that the world has

become increasingly VUCA; a large part of this has to do with exponential

technological advancements as well as the interconnectivity between

say, an ever-growing population, societal well-being, and environmental

degradation.

As an aside, to give you a sense of just how increasingly volatile,

uncertain, complex, and ambiguous the world has become, futurist Jamais

Cascio (2020) says that even the term VUCA is no longer adequate to

truly describe the extent of what we are facing. Cascio coined a new

acronym to describe a world that is now brittle, anxious, nonlinear, and

incomprehensible or BANI. What meaning does that have for you?

I don’t want you spending too much time absorbing, reflecting on,

and assessing the two acronyms. This is not the point I want to share

with you. I’ve introduced VUCA and BANI to get you reflecting on how

leaders need to rethink how they make sense of the world in this age of

uncertainty and to consider whether the systems of government and business

employing linear thinking and problem-solving mentalities is still

relevant. For the sake of brevity throughout the book, I will simply refer

to VUCA, rather than BANI (or other similar terms including “TUNA”

and “RUPT” to make sense of the change that we are experiencing), as

VUCA, at least for now, is more widely known and understood.

Continued Evolution

This brings us to one final acronym which, at a higher level, will play

an important part in setting the scene for this book: David Ronfeldt’s

(1996) tribes, institutions, markets, and networks (TIMN) framework. I’m

introducing TIMN because it goes some way toward understanding the

context as to why the world is increasingly VUCA. I’m also introducing it

because it plays a part in explaining the tension now faced by leaders who,

unsuccessfully, yearn for a glorious past where institutions and marketbased

private sector companies were seen as the experts in most areas and

their judgments weren’t questioned.

Ronfeldt’s brilliantly developed framework describes how he believes

societal evolution has taken place through the ages, and it consists of four

basic forms.

• Tribes which are kinship based, expressing an inherent

extended family structure. An example would be the fans of a

sporting team

• Institutions that are hierarchical in nature, such as government

and religious bodies

• Markets which are competitive and respond to the forces of

supply and demand

• Networks which are collaborative in nature and are being used

successfully by activists and younger generations to progress

their goals

The forms are distinctive with respect to the beliefs and values each

has and how a system is to be organized; each is easily recognizable along a

continuum (Morgan 2020). While versions of each have existed for thousands

of years, Ronfeldt believes that each has gained prominence—and

dominance—at different rates through time. Tribes (T) developed first

before institutional systems (I) allowing T + I societies to form. Societies

then enabled the markets to form (M), allowing for tribes (T) + institutions

(I) + markets (M) societies to exist before the networks (N) recently

began to appear, permitting us to start shifting into T + I + M + N societies.

Each form is apparent in different facets of the relevant society.

Each of these forms becomes associated with new capabilities that

the predecessor(s) don’t possess. As each develops, it enables people to

organize to do more than they could previously, notably reducing inefficiencies

that had become apparent under the previous dominating form.

As each develops, predecessors cannot thrive the way the newer forms can

(Ronfeldt 2016). Their glories are now confined to the past.

The leaders within older forms will also be challenged due to the

nature of the key problems faced in a networked, VUCA world. They

will be slow to accept or act on the complexities and inefficiencies created

by T + I + M societies that the “+N”—the networked societies—will

attempt to address. Self-organizing networked groups are already creating

new meaning-based governance systems in a response that will be

unlike anything prior societies (such as those dominated by institutions

and markets) have been able to form (Morgan 2020).

They Ain’t Called Wicked for Nothing

I mentioned the number of leaders I talk to from all walks of life who

make reference, with a sigh, to how complicated, uncertain, and hostile

things can be now. Well, this brings me to the concept of wicked problems.

These include but are not limited to local, national, and international

issues such as:

• Evolving and migrating demographics

• Rapid urbanization and megacities

• Climate change and resource scarcity

• Shifting centers of power regarding economics and politics

• Rise of technology and connectedness

• Empowered individuals, peak trust, and the era of divisiveness

• Improving—and declining—health and wealth. Inequalities

continue to grow in many developed countries as poverty

rates remain of significant concern, exacerbating education,

health, and well-being opportunities for the disadvantaged

(OECD 2016).

Wicked problems aren’t solely found on an international scale. Within

your local context, there can be discussions about wicked problems such

as crime, education, or health. However, and importantly, these challenges—

and opportunities—are deeply interconnected. Like VUCA and

TIMN, wicked problems have implications for how leaders, well, lead.

They aren’t linear in nature like a major construction project or an internal

IT upgrade where you can prepare an intricate Gantt Chart and follow

that quite successfully to completion. Unlike wicked problems, linear

problems are understandable and easy to gain consensus from stakeholders

Wicked problems don’t follow a linear resolution—you cannot solve

them, only tame them. Johansen (2007) goes further, observing that these

types of problems are more like dilemmas, requiring leaders to deal with

them rather than solve them. This can mean at times that the preferable

decision is the “least worst” option. By the way, Rittel and Webber

(1973) classified such problems as wicked because it was apparent that

our existing systems were creating problems that these very systems could

not solve (Morgan 2020). The systems struggled to acknowledge the existence

of these wicked problems. Have things changed?

Rittel and Webber (1973) as well as Camillus (2008) noted that there

is an array of reasons why a wicked problem differs from run-of-the-mill

problems. These include the notion that:

• It is difficult to define a wicked problem. It never ceases to

fascinate me when I ask a diverse group “just what is the

problem?” how disparate the responses can be.

• Wicked problems can have several root causes, each of which

has a particular value, depending on who you talk to and their

perspectives.

• Every wicked problem can, itself, be a root cause of another

wicked problem.

• There are no clear and confident solutions to wicked problems.

Just as stakeholders can disagree on the problem or its

root causes, so too there can be disparities with respect to the

way forward.

• Each wicked problem is unique and has no precedent and

no clear endpoint. There is little confidence associated with

finding a way forward for many.

Our inherent ways of confronting problems just won’t suffice when it

comes to wicked problems. Instead, things could become worse.

Rather than solving a key or strategic problem on the spot or during

a brief brainstorming session, wicked problems highlight that the command

and control or heroic style of leadership just won’t suffice in these

circumstances. More is required with these kinds of challenges than

“relying on your gut.” This underscores the importance of collaborating,

sense-making, and truly trying to understand what is faced by leaders.

The Eye of the Storm

I appreciate that there are some sizeable concepts in this chapter to digest.

Does it feel to you like we are experiencing momentous, even turbulent

change? I accept that as we all have different perspectives, we may come to

different conclusions. Consequently, I have finished off this chapter and

forthcoming chapters with a series of question to help you reflect on what

these changes I’ve described mean for your organization, your leadership,

and … you.

But, before then, I wanted to share my thoughts on what this all

means for lives, livelihoods, and the planet.

Change on any scale can result in leaders running the risk of losing

their focus on what is important, strategically, particularly when change

occurs at an accelerating rate. Have you heard of the “fire fighters” metaphor?

It is used to describe cultures, driven by leaders, that just shift

their attention from one issue that is urgent—but often strategically

unimportant— to the next urgent but unimportant issue, always focused

on quickly solving the issue. Leaders do this at the expense of tackling

those issues that are strategically important but not urgent.

We run the risk of taking that approach on a grander scale, resulting in

cumulative adverse impacts, particularly when it comes to the wicked—

and interconnected—social, environmental, and economic problems

that we face. In fact, such cumulative impacts are already present; while

many leaders focus solely on the pandemic, climate change (and the other

wicked problems mentioned) haven’t gone away … in fact, they’ve grown

worse. As change speeds up and becomes more complex, we lose sight

of what is important to many people, namely, “home.” We lose sight of

how to maintain and improve home. Home conjures up several images;

to you, it may evoke images of your family, or your literal home, or the

surrounding community, and even the natural environment you live in.

To John, home meant community as well as his livelihood gained from

working the land.

I appreciate that some Eastern nations may be culturally adapted to

parts or the sum of the change apparent within VUCA. Charles-Edouard

Bouée (2013) notes that Chinese organizations, for example, thrive in a

VUCA world due to a dynamism and agility that is culturally considered

normal. You will get to read more about this in Chapter 7 when I introduce

the courageous Dr Jinfeng Zhou. Nevertheless, globally, we have

challenges and opportunities around home, around our lives, livelihoods,

and the planet. So, what does this all mean? What do these challenges and

opportunities look like? Well, I’ve really struggled with how to successfully

convey this to you. I could share with you countless statistics from

international reports or from your own national government’s reports,

highlighting the scale of the challenges faced. But it is difficult to convey

what we face if you have little experience of it. So, instead, here is a

unique perspective on these. First, I’ve listed in Table 1.1 the 17 United

Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). I hope that you

get a sense of the breadth of social, economic, and environmental issues

facing us. What stands out for you?

Second, I want to introduce you to the groundbreaking and comprehensive

planetary boundaries (PB) framework (Figure 1.1). While I had shared the UN’s SDGs with you to give you a sense of the breadth

Table 1.1 The breadth of the social, economic, and environmental issues we face

1. No poverty 7. Affordable and clean energy 13. Climate action

2. Zero hunger 8. Decent work and economic growth 14. Life below water

3. Good health and well-being 9. Industry, innovation, and infrastructure

15. Life on land 4. Quality education 10. R educed inequalities 16. Peace, justice, and strong institutions 5. Gender equality 11. Sustainable cities and communities

17. Partnerships for the goals 6. Clean water and sanitation

12. Responsible consumption and production

of issues that we face, and you will shortly hear from an array of leaders

to give you depth to the issues faced, hopefully the PB framework will

give you a sense of the urgency required. It is a comprehensive early

warning system.

To put it simply, the PB framework defines the constraints that we

now face at a planetary level to help guide us away from our present,

unsustainable, trajectory; that is, it shows where changes are required

with respect to critical Earth-system processes if humanity is to continue

developing and thriving (Steffen, Richardson, Rockström, Cornell, Fetzer,

Bennett, Biggs, Carpenter, de Vries, de Wit, Folke, Gerten, Heinke,

Mace, Persson, Ramanathan, Reyers, and Sörlin 2015).

When we look at just one component within the framework, climate

change, it is apparent just how urgent is the need for committed and

Figure 1.1 Planetary boundaries

Source: Courtesy of J. Lokrantz/Azote based on Steffen et al. (2015).

cooperative action. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC) has been unequivocal in highlighting what we currently face:

“Human-induced climate change, including more frequent and

intense extreme events, has caused widespread adverse impacts and

related losses and damages to nature and people, beyond natural climate

variability” (IPCC 2022).

Climate change has already disrupted many systems, human, and natural.

The impacts are wide-ranging, to say the least. You will hear more

about that from several leaders that you will meet throughout the book.

Of immediate concern was the recent observation by the IPCC that the

evidence of impacts, projected risks, and resulting trends demonstrate that

the necessary action required, worldwide, to keep global warming below

a 1.5°C increase is more urgent than even they had previously assessed.

While we are clear about the increased risk of climate change to our

ability to develop and thrive, the PB framework also highlights that irrespective

of the pandemic, systemic risk had been on the rise, often overshadowed

by progress in economic development or poverty reductions

(UNDP 2020). The increasing risks to humanity are associated with:

• Biosphere integrity, as measured by the rate of extinction

of plants and animals as well as the functional diversity of

ecosystems

• Biochemical flows exceeding the PB. This refers to: (i) the

mining of phosphorus and application of it in the form of

fertilizers to erodible soils; (ii) the flow of phosphorus from

freshwater systems into the ocean; and (iii) the industrial use

of nitrogen in fertilizers

• Land-system change, as measured by the area of forested land

as a percentage of the original cover, for example (Steffen et al.

2015).

What concerned me when I read the associated report is that, at present,

the experts are unable to quantify the risks associated with “novel

entities.” This could include chemicals or other new types of engineered

materials or organisms, each of which could have the potential to create

adverse impacts on vital processes from their persistence and mobility.

Imagine the vast amount of chemicals or materials this could include?

Think about the concerns being raised in the last few years about the scale

of the distribution of micro-plastics across the world. Current modeling

suggests we could ingest 20 kg or over 40 lb. of microplastics during our

lifetime. Who knows how this could affect humanity and the planet?

Remember that everything covered in the PB framework does not

exist in isolation from one another. These overly complex processes are

highly integrated, with interactions that cause unintended consequences.

In just over a decade, we experienced “the global financial crisis, the climate

crisis, the inequality crisis, and the COVID-19 crisis,” not to mention

the increasing rate of extinction of wildlife crisis. All of these have

“shown that the resilience of the system itself is breaking down” and,

potentially, trigger the tipping points from which we cannot recover.

Faced with interconnected social imbalances and planetary pressures, this

emphasizes the need for systems thinking and the need to avoid a reductive

approach as has been the case with linear problem solving (Steffen et

al. 2015; UNDP 2020). We need to “rattle the cage” and appreciate that

we need to treat the system and leadership differently.

It is also worth highlighting that these calls, challenging how we

treat the planet and each other, aren’t just coming from civic leaders or

scientists.

Religious leaders have also called for improvements to “home.”

Pope Francis, for example, made an urgent appeal for the protection of

the home common to all of us. He implored the need to “bring the whole

family together to seek a sustainable and integral development, for we

know that things can change … Humanity still has the ability to work

together in building our common home” (Pope Francis 2015).

It can feel difficult to convey a clear sense of what the storm looks like

if your only feedback is from mainstream media. Realizing that I needed

assistance in this regard, I’ve called on some amazing leaders to explain

the storm from their perspectives. Subsequently, I am really excited to

introduce you firstly to the truly inspiring Zainab Bangura.

What a powerful story she has. Key to the conversation I am having

with you is part of her background as a women’s rights campaigner and

activist. Up until 2002, Sierra Leonean women and girls were endangered

by widespread and systematic sexual violence, including rape and

sexual slavery. Zainab became prominent during this time documenting,

monitoring, and reporting such horrendous crimes and other human

rights violations (Sambira n.d.). Through time, she progressed to becoming

the Sierra Leone Foreign Minister, then Minister for Health and Sanitation

before continuing her committed service to Africa, and the wider globe in roles including, but not limited to, the second UN Special Representative on Sexual Violence in Conflict. That role reflects the passion that she has for gender equality and the power of education. Just imagine what she has heard, seen, and felt.

My conversations with Zainab left me speechless and numb at times

with respect to what she shared. I challenge you to feel otherwise.

Now, when organizations think about, say, climate change, they may

think only about direct impacts resulting from dealing with extreme

temperatures or declining or extreme rainfall events. Yet, as Zainab noted,

there are momentous indirect impacts that we must confront. “You know,

look at the Sahel (the semiarid transitional band south of the Sahara that

extends from Sudan and Eritrea in the east to Mauritania and Senegal

in the west). The reality is the Sahara Desert is expanding. You have the

pastoral people who don’t respect international borders; they go where the

water is to feed their cattle. So, they encroach into other areas.”

“And this is what we’re witnessing in a lot of countries. They have

no respect. They follow the water, and the water beds are shrinking,

drying up … creating conflict. It’s affected social cohesion between

people who used to live together and so, it is less predictable. You are

having less predictable rainfall, more droughts, and these borders with

the desert are shrinking. It’s in the Sahel, it’s here, between Kenya,

South Sudan, Somalia, South Sudan. All of that area. Climate change

is causing these conflicts—and to understand that (extremist organization)

Al Shabaab is operating in Somalia, and people must come there

with their cattle looking for water. It’s a big crisis, that is in full swing.

That’s the reality.”

Yet, climate change isn’t creating seismic impacts in isolation from

other challenges. The Sahel is particularly vulnerable. It is a region subjected

to many interconnected, complex challenges. These include civil

unrest, high population growth, and food and water insecurity. As IEP

(2021) observe, ecological degradation and population growth in the

Sahel have increased the likelihood of conflict.

Zainab provided a human side to how the COVID-19 pandemic is

also exacerbating the quality of African lives and livelihoods. She noted

that, to understand the context faced, it is worthwhile appreciating that

the 17 SDGs were developed to address the problems that “have always

been there. What the pandemic has done is exacerbated the problems for

us. If you take health care, we’ve always known that we have a problem.

What the pandemic has done for us is to show how inadequately we have

funded the health care system, how we’ve neglected it. COVID also highlighted

some of the things that we did not think at the time were issues.

If you take the economy in Africa, what the pandemic is doing is making

the economy collapse. In a country like Kenya where I am, over 30% or

more of their GDP is hospitality. Now when you shut down the country,

no tourists are coming in. If the economies of the West are under a lot of

strain, how do you think they’re going to invest into Africa? These are the

discussions we are not completely awakened to.”

“I think that what has come out of the pandemic for Africa, is that

it has highlighted our weaknesses, our vulnerability, the inequality, and

the injustice of the global system as it relates to Africa. We couldn’t meet

the SDGs on education, on reduction of poverty, most people have gone

under poverty during this time because there’s a lot of unemployment.

Jobs have been lost, companies have closed, you know, children cannot

go to school. That’s what has been highlighted. We have to start a new

thinking, we have to think internally and say, ‘how can we make sure we

do not become more vulnerable?’ We cannot depend 100% on a global

system. We have to develop a system that will allow us, in the most difficult

circumstances, to survive.”

You may feel removed from what Zainab has seen in Africa. However,

I believe that there is much that can be related back to the situation that

any institution finds itself in. Just like Africa, organizations are finding

themselves exposed to more conflict, and many institutions have been

found to be brittle in response to the pandemic and climate change. They

have been exposed, needing new ways of thinking, new leadership styles.

Even business models that were appropriate 10 years ago may no longer

be appropriate in an age of uncertainty.

Yet, even with the seismic hardships Zainab identified that are facing

Africa—even then—you aren’t getting a sense of the extensive interconnectivity

that can adversely impact upon lives, livelihoods, and the planet in so

many ways. Just as when you descend in a plane through the clouds and you

suddenly see the extensive detail of a city or town below, so too once you

drill down further, you really get a sense of what is apparent.

I wanted to learn more about how just these two issues alone—the

pandemic and climate change—are affecting so many of Africa’s women

and girls.

Firstly, the short- to long-term impacts on girls are utterly profound

and profoundly worrying. “Some girls, some of them have lost years,

which they will not regain. There is early pregnancy. Or, in the villages

they force their children to get married, instead of getting pregnant.” So,

they won’t return to getting an education and will be lost to the workforce

or creating their own opportunities for the workforce. Just imagine

how society is missing out from not having access to these great minds or

potential leaders? I will expand on this in the next chapter from a Latin

American perspective. But there is even more to it than that.

“In a lot of the schools, children get their main meal in school. So,

when the schools are closed, these children are deprived of the main meal

they have. Imagine the consequences on the girl child, in terms of the

lockdown, the ability to go to school, the ability to feed them. You have a

whole generation that is going to drop out.” The consequences are unfathomable.

It deeply pains me to say that it is just as difficult for women. “If

you take the informal (employment) sector in Africa, it’s dominated by

women. This is a sector where they don’t get access to support systems. So,

they have not been working in the informal sector, as it only succeeds on

a thriving economy. You have more women in social services, in-house, in

education, in the hospitality industry and these are where the pandemic

has hit considerably.”

“So girls have become pregnant—but don’t even talk about domestic

violence,” Zainab asserted. “In Kenya, the record shows that increased by

40%. The husband has lost their job; he cannot feed his wife. Of course,

tempers are high, the men become abusive and hit the women to deal

with their own frustration. It has been very difficult during the pandemic.

I think for me, as a woman, I was able to respond. I was able to understand

because I had been in an abusive relationship.”

Anyway, that won’t be the last we hear of Zainab’s story throughout

the book. There’s more.

Due to the increasing interconnectedness that we are experiencing

from living in a networked world, I am going to argue that organizations,

irrespective of the sector that they operate in, are not isolated from

the social, economic, and environmental challenges and the associated,

far-reaching, and complex change that is occurring. Organizations are

not an island unto themselves. Even if consideration is given to just one

of the megatrends, climate change, it is apparent that more proactive,

anticipatory, and adaptive approaches are required if organizations are to

survive and thrive.

Finally, do you remember Kurzweil’s expectations that the world

will experience 1,000 times the technological advancements this century

as experienced in the last? This means that all these implications I’ve

described will get more complex and disruptive. As I’ve noted, this has

profound consequences for organizations. In Chapter 2, I am going to

talk about what this really means for leaders, their leadership styles and

how this translates to their efforts to deal with external issues, those influencing the quality of lives, livelihoods, and the planet.

Reflections

As you progress through the reflections at the end of each chapter, please

grab a pad and pen and take your time.

What has change looked like, or felt like, for you over the past two

years? Over the past five years? What change if any have you noticed with

respect to:

• Your local, national, and global economy? Is the makeup of

industries changing? Are the industries or companies that

dominated five years ago still dominant?

• Social issues? Have new social issues or movements risen?

What is being questioned or confronted regarding once taken-

for-granted values and beliefs?

• Technology? Are you seeing at least some of what Kurzweil

wrote about?

• Environmental issues? What environmental issues are now a

strategic risk for your organization? Does your risk register

needs revision?

What implications does this kind of change have for your organization?

Or you? Does it feel like change is speeding up? Similar to what

Zainab said about Africa, does your organization feel vulnerable?

How has your organization responded to wicked problems?

Have you worked in an organization that was focused on a glorious

past? What did that look like? What did leadership in the organization

look like?